The Lawlor Group conducts extensive qualitative and quantitative research for independent college and university clients throughout the United States. Based on our recent findings, combined with several outside studies available to the general public, we’ve identified higher education marketplace trends that will have a significant impact on student recruitment and enrollment management during the coming year.
Gradual Enrollment Growth
In Fall 2022, enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students will recover its previous peak from Fall 2009, yet the future average growth rate will not produce as many additional enrollments compared to its past trajectory.
Citation: Digest of Education Statistics
Increase in Racial/Ethnic Diversity
Students of color will account for 99% of the enrollment growth at degree-granting postsecondary institutions during the next nine years—50% of it from Hispanic students, 27% from Black students, 13% from students of two or more races, and 9% from Asian students.
Citation: Digest of Education Statistics
Variable Population Trends
Nationwide, the number of high school graduates will peak in 2024-25 at 2.9% higher than its current level, yet then will fall dramatically to 4.7% lower than now by 2031-32.
Citation: Knocking at the College Door
Small Market Share for High Price
A majority of full-time four-year undergraduates attend a college or university with published tuition and fees of less than $12,100. While the median sticker price for those attending a public institution is $10,270, at private nonprofit institutions it’s $35,260.
Citation: Trends in College Pricing
Price Growing Twice as Fast as Income
Thirty years ago, the average published price of tuition, fees, room, and board at private nonprofit institutions was 40% of the median household income. By 2016 it grew to 77%—although it would have been half that, 38%, if the published price had increased only at the rate of inflation.
Citations: Trends in College Pricing and Historical Income Tables: Households
Sticker Shock is a Deterrent
Most families have crossed a college off their consideration list due to its published price before applying to it (likely, before knowing what their net cost would be).
Citation: How American Pays for College
Economic Considerations Increasing
Sixteen of the choices among reasons for choosing a college have been consistently offered on CIRP’s survey during the past decade. The seven of them that have gained an average of at least half a percentage point per year are mostly focused on finances, with “the cost of attending this college” gaining the most.
Citation: The American Freshman
Growth in Majors with Higher Earning Potential
Nine categories of majors that were studied by college graduates aged 25 to 29 increased beyond the average of all majors between 2010 and 2015. Three of the top four gainers correlated with higher-than-average annual earnings in 2015 for 25- to 29-year-old graduates with that major.
Citation: Digest of Education Statistics
Employment Outcomes Often Disappointing
Although the job placement rate of college graduates has held steady during the past several years, graduates increasingly feel underemployed in jobs that are not taking full advantage of their college degrees.
Citation: College Graduate Employment Study
Career Relevance Adds Value
College graduates value their education more if their undergraduate major closely aligns with their current work, although 23% overall (40% among graduates from the last decade) believe their degree wasn’t worth its cost.
Citation: Outcomes Survey
Online Sources Matter
During their discovery and information-gathering phases, prospective students are using a variety of digital tools to find and research colleges.
Citation: Social Admissions Report
Communication Requires Multiple Channels
Students from lower income households are more likely to have first discovered a college of interest on social media—and they’re also more likely to use mail from a college to learn about it.
Citation: Student Communication Preference Study
The demographic, economic, and technological trends in the higher education marketplace are requiring senior administrators at private colleges and universities to ask themselves five primary questions. To uncover the data that can provide answers, The Lawlor Group has deployed several research studies in our recent work with clients as we gather the market intelligence that informs our recommendations for integrated marketing communications and our strategic counsel regarding all elements of the marketing mix. As a result, our clients gain intelligent solutions for dealing with the marketplace challenges they face.
Population growth has slowed, and demographic trends forecast a national decline of high school graduates within eight years.
To better understand the marketplace in which one competes, an environmental scan identifies trends and patterns and surfaces issues and information that may impact the organization. Conducting prospect research can reveal those prospects most likely to move successfully through the admissions funnel to matriculation.