Demographic Cliff

The impending “demographic cliff” is without a doubt a new reality for so many colleges and universities today. Inside Higher Ed looked back on all that has happened in higher ed during 2024 and highlighted all the closures and reconfigurations that have occurred. It referenced some new research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicating that experts expect college closures to increase significantly in the next five years amid enrollment pressures.

This is reinforced in Jeff Selingo’s recent Next post. Jeff has spoken at a previous Lawlor Summer Seminar, and he always has informed insights. As he noted at the beginning of his article, “Higher ed hasn’t found its footing either in the last five years. A combination of the pandemic, questions about the value of the degree in a changing labor market, and last year’s FAFSA debacle, have all contributed to enrollment declines. The latest figures from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center out this month, in work commissioned by National College Attainment Network (NCAN), show that year-over-year enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen fell by 5% overall. A deeper look inside the numbers shows sharper declines among certain groups of students at particular types of colleges.”

Jeff offers more content and insights related to all of this and notes what so many people are thinking today. He highlights that the impending enrollment decline, and the coming demographic cliff, has led to lots of predictions about colleges closing. Some are thinking it will be a gradual decline, while others are thinking it could be a worst-case scenario.

Finally, and a growing problem, is the value of location. As the Chronicle notes in a recent and lengthy article about whether a college town survive the closure of its college, it highlights that “When A Gown Leaves Town” the impact is much more than economic.

No matter what, 2025 is definitely going to be full of trying times for most colleges and universities.

Lawlor Recommends

As we have noted throughout this year, colleges and universities are experiencing so many items that impact their feelings about being on the edge of a demographic cliff. There is the constant thinking about what matters and what doesn’t matter; lots of uncertainty and consternation; and plenty of difficult and challenging problems. Overall, continue to stay positive, embrace innovation, and have a mindset about being edupreneurial. In addition, focus on alumni and friends of the college or university, because the more they know about the institution’s situation, many will be predisposed to helping your college or university overcome obstacles and helping you create enhanced value and more longevity.

Best wishes to all of you this holiday season, and have a great 2025 that creates a lasting impact for many—and keeps your institution away from the demographic cliff.